More evidence of Russia’s deepening and seemingly erratic involvement in Syria’s civil war has now appeared via movements of parts of its Black Sea Fleet into the Mediterranean and blatant incursions into Turkey’s airspace by their Syrian-based tactical aircraft.
Russia’s mission creep in Syria seems more like a mission sprint over the last month, with a fully established air base supporting daily air strikes humming away and an Iranian-Iraqi-Hezbollah backed ground offensive, which Russia will support, looming.
According to NATO, two aerial incidents occurred near the Turkish-Syrian border this weekend involving tactical aircraft emanating out of Syria. The first saw a Russian Su-30SM cross into Turkey’s airspace and after repeated warnings Turkish Air Force F-16s were vectored in to intercept the jet. As the F-16s approached, the Su-30 crossed back over the border into Syrian airspace. A similar incident is said to have occurred with a Russian Su-24 Fencer.
Moscow has fully admitted to the incursions, stating that it was a “navigational error,” which is laughable considering how modern the Su-30SM’s avionics suite is and how even a mobile GPS, which Russian Su-24s are known to use, could keep the pilots aware of what territory they are over.
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu played down the violation, unlike his NATO collegues, stating that it was a mistake and that contacts between the two countries (Russia and Turkey) remain strong:
“Our foreign minister called the Russian foreign minister and said clearly that this should not be repeated. The information from Russia this morning was that this happened by mistake and that they respect Turkish borders and that it will not be repeated... Whoever violates our airspace, our rules of engagement are clear. We will warn whoever violates our borders and our airspace in a friendly manner. This country can be whichever and Russia is our neighbor, our friend. In this way, there is no tension between Turkey and Russia. The Syria issue is not a Turkish-Russian crisis.”
This softer, kinder approach to aircraft busting through the Syrian-Turkey border from the south is a far cry from Turkey’s previous hard-line stance, which resulted in a Turkish F-16 downing a MiG-23 over a year and a half ago. Obviously the implications of downing a Syrian MiG are far less than a Russian fighter operating on behalf of the Assad regime.
The intercept of Russian aircraft in Turkish airspace was not the only aerial incident between Turkey and Assad-aligned forces in Syria over the weekend. On Sunday, reportedly a MiG-29 Fulcrum flying near the Turkish-Syrian border locked its fire control radar on Turkish F-16s patrolling on their side for almost six minutes straight, which was an unnerving event for the Turkish F-16 crews.
Although the MiG-29 is flown by Russia as well as Syria, Russia does not have any of the aircraft deployed to its base near Latakia. As such, the MiG-29 belonged to Syria unless they were misidentified Russian Su-30SMs, which is doubtful.
All this is just a reminder of how volatile and complex the situation, both on the ground and in the air, has become in and around Syria since Russia dived into the conflict.
Meanwhile, reports that a portion of Russia’s primarily Crimea-based Black Sea fleet have entered the Eastern Mediterranean under the guise of executing various anti-surface, anti-submarine and anti-air drills. This flotilla includes the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the Slava Class cruiser Moskva.
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