• Amid Europe’s worst refugee crisis
since World War II, the potential for terrorist ‘infiltration’ is both
exaggerated and a real possibility
• The argument that terrorist groups
such as the Islamic State or al-Qaeda could plant operatives amid crowds
of desperate refugees is cited as a reason to better control the influx
of people fleeing conflict zones into Europe
• Some of the fear is warranted; not
necessarily because of refugees’ home countries, but because of the lack
of the usual vetting and processing that goes into standard asylum and
immigration cases in most countries
• As the number of refugees grows, there
will be increasing backlash among some in the host communities; the
nature of the crisis results in understandable concerns mixed with
alarming rhetoric and reactionary policies.
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One of the most insidious aspects of terrorism is the unwarranted fear and suspicion it sows—a self-generating cycle of mistrust that is, after all, one of the primary goals of terrorism. It was inevitable that the threat of terrorism would exacerbate the already catastrophic refugee crisis
now unfolding in parts of Europe. Politicians and others are
increasingly raising the fear of terrorist infiltration amidst the
massive numbers of desperate people fleeing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan,
and parts of Africa as reason to clamp down on what is now an
uncontrollable situation at many European borders. These fears are not
irrational—though they might not be proportionate—since the threat, like
so much about terrorism, is both hypothetical and legitimate. That it
could occur is taken by some to mean that it is certain to happen, and
therefore all measures must be taken to prevent it.
The refugee crisis in parts of Europe
has worsened so quickly and dramatically that even countries such as
Germany, willing and able to absorb massive numbers of asylum seekers,
are taking steps to regain some sovereign control over their borders.
The utter lack of vetting and assessing of those entering the country
creates legitimate security fears among officials and the general
public. Officials should therefore move quickly to determine who is in
the country and begin assessing the situation—though the staggering
numbers have overwhelmed every existing protocol and procedure in place.
The challenge is that it is impossible to prove that terrorist groups such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda
are not trying to plant some of their members in the waves of desperate
people trying to reach the shores of Europe. Though the threat is
unknowable, it is probable that they are, given the lack of downside for
the groups to try and the huge upside should they succeed. The
unknowable nature of the threat, however, makes it susceptible to
exaggeration and exploitation. That a few terrorists may be hidden among
hundreds of thousands of refugees is perceived as a greater threat than
the destabilizing consequences of a massive humanitarian crisis—though
in reality, the latter threat is much greater.
For its part, the Islamic State has
denounced refugees fleeing its territory (though it is more than likely
many of the Syrian refugees are fleeing Assad’s butchery as much as the Islamic State’s barbarism).
The group has warned refugees from running into the arms of the infidel
West, and of the pernicious influences of alcohol and pornography on
young refugees in their new adopted homeland. This is a stunning denial
of how unbearable life is under the Islamic State and Assad, where the
absence of alcohol and nudity cannot overcome barrel bombs and
beheadings. The pressure on refugees by the Islamic State—as well as the
Assad regime—not to leave is nothing compared to their urgency to flee,
and no amount of hectoring or threats will alter that fact.
As unmanageable as the refugee numbers are now, they will likely worsen in the near to medium term, as the prospects for peace
in places like Syria are—for the people suffering through conflicts—far
more distant than the shores of Greece or Italy. The numbers are so
massive that even with basic biographical information, which is sorely
lacking now, authorities have no realistic chance of vetting and
assessing refugees with any confidence. Better border controls and
asylum processing protocols are important but they alone will not
address the crisis. The solution lies in resolving the conflicts—which
has always proven an impossible task. The threat of terrorism stemming
from the refugee crisis will likely become more of a public issue in the
West, as understandable frustrations and concern give way to misplaced
anger and fear. Terrorism feeds off of fear and uncertainty, two
emotions that all sides in the refugee crisis have in abundance.
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