Thursday, June 11, 2015

New US hub in Iraq could be 'lily pad' model

The new U.S. military hub being set up in Iraq's western desert could be a model for more such train-and-advise operations — and with them, likely more U.S. troops — designed to help Iraq's struggling forces defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the top-ranking U.S. general said Thursday.

"Sure, we're looking all the time at whether there might be additional sites necessary," Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters traveling with him to Naples, Italy, where he is meeting with U.S. commanders. He likened these potential bases to "lily pads" in a pond, which would function as hopping-off points for Iraqi forces as they work their way deeper into ISIL-held territory.

 "It's another one of the options" short of committing U.S. ground combat forces, Dempsey said. President Barack Obama has ruled out that step.

Dempsey’s remarks came the day after the Obama administration announced that as many as 450 U.S. troops will be sent in the next two months to the Al-Taqqadum military base, situated between the ISIL-occupied cities of Ramadi and Fallujah in Anbar province, to advise Iraqi forces and help integrate a larger number of Sunni tribal fighters into the Iraqi campaign to retake Ramadi.
The general said the mission for U.S. forces there "first and foremost" will be to assist the Iraqi military in organizing and executing its counteroffensive, while encouraging greater involvement by Iraq's Sunni minority. Integrating into the fight the Sunni tribes — who have either been sidelined by the Shia-led central government in Baghdad, or are unwilling to join it — is seen as crucial to driving ISIL out of the Sunni-dominated areas of western Iraq.

As the Iraqi campaign against ISIL progresses, Dempsey said, another U.S. hub could be established along the route between Baghdad and the northern city of Mosul, which has been under ISIL control for a year.

“Our campaign is built on establishing these lily pads that allow us to encourage the Iraqi security forces forward,” Dempsey said. “As they go forward, they may exceed the reach of the particular lily pad. We’re looking all the time to see if additional sites might be necessary.”

But prospects seem dim for launching a counteroffensive this year in Mosul — ISIL’s most important territorial holding in Iraq — given the Iraqi army's recent defeat in Ramadi. Dempsey refused to offer a timeline for Iraq launching a pushback in Ramadi, but his description of the plan for Al-Taqqadum indicated that the big counterattack is not imminent.

Asked about the reason for putting U.S. advisers closer to the fight for Ramadi, he said, "I think that this will be an enabler to what eventually will become a counterattack to reclaim Ramadi."

There now are nearly 3,100 U.S. troops in Iraq involved in training, advising, security and other support of local forces. The U.S. is also conducting bombing missions as well as aerial reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering missions against ISIL forces, while counting on Iraqi troops to do the fighting on the ground.

But Wednesday's announcement didn’t mention any move to send U.S. forces closer to the frontlines, either to call in airstrikes or to advise smaller battlefront units, underscoring Obama's reluctance to plunge the military deeper into war and risk the sight of more body bags coming home from Iraq. The U.S. insists that its troops will not have a combat role — but says they may venture off the base at Al-Takkadum to help identify and recruit Sunni tribes.
Earlier this week, Obama lamented that the U.S. lacks a "complete strategy" for defeating ISIL. Officials pointed to a glaring lack of recruits among Sunnis.

The Sunni-Shia divide has been at the heart of ISIL's successes in Iraq. Officials blamed the Iraqi government for last year's collapse of the military in the face of the ISIL onslaught. Many Sunnis in the armed forces dropped their weapons and fled, unwilling to fight for the Shia-led government.
Some residents of Sunni-majority areas still fear an invasion and reprisals from Iran-backed Shia militia, even more than they fear domination by ISIL. And Iraqi leaders in the Shia-led government have been slow to recruit Sunni tribesmen, fearing that the fighters, once armed, could turn against them.

Obama's new plan, however, doesn't go far enough for critics who have pressed for military coordinators and advisers closer to the front lines to augment the U.S. airstrike campaign.

House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said Wednesday that sending several hundred military advisers to Iraq "is a step in the right direction," but he criticized Obama for not having "an overarching strategy." Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, was harsher in his assessment: "This is incrementalism at its best or worst, depending on how you describe it."

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