UK intelligence says Russia increased drone strike tempo

 

UK Defence Intelligence has reported that Russia launched approximately 4,400 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) against Ukrainian targets in January 2026, a moderate decrease from around 5,100 launched in December 2025, the Ministry of Defence stated.

In its latest update on 19 February 2026, Defence Intelligence said: “In January 2026 Russia launched approximately 4,400 one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS) against Ukrainian targets. This was a moderate decrease from the approximately 5,100 OWA UAS that Russia launched in December 2025, almost certainly due to poorer weather conditions in January 2026.”

However, the assessment said Russian strike activity increased again in early February. Defence Intelligence stated: “Daily launch rates increased significantly in the first two weeks of February 2026, with Russia averaging approximately 190 per day compared to approximately 140 per day in January 2026. This follows a short pause in energy strikes from 28 January 2026 – 2 February 2026 that both sides broadly observed. Russia immediately returned to widespread energy sector targeting in Ukraine on 3 February 2026.”

The update said Russia has focused heavily on energy-related infrastructure since late 2025. It stated: “Energy-related critical national infrastructure (CNI) has been Russia’s primary target since the beginning of October 2025. Russia has launched more than 20,000 OWA UAS and more than 300 of its premier air launched missiles, fired by its long-range bomber fleet, in attempts to systematically destroy Ukraine’s electrical grid and heat generation capacity. Water provision is also being impacted by this concerted campaign as a second order effect.”

Defence Intelligence said any reduction in missile usage could enable Russia to rebuild stockpiles while maintaining pressure through alternative systems. It stated: “Any pause in this missile usage allows Russia to build its stocks for future strikes with its primary target almost certain to remain energy CNI. Russia can also offset any gaps in long-range bomber usage by drawing on its arsenal of deep strike weapons. Short range ballistic missiles have been heavily relied upon by Russia for this purpose, used in far greater numbers during this winter strike campaign than previously in the conflict.”

UK intelligence says Russia increased drone strike tempo

Iran builds concrete shield at military site amid acute US tensions

 

Newly released satellite images show that Iran has recently built a concrete ‌shield over a new facility at a sensitive military site and covered it in soil, advancing work at a location reportedly bombed by Israel in 2024 amid soaring tensions with ⁠the United States and the threat of regional war.

The images also show that Iran has ⁠buried tunnel entrances at a nuclear site bombed by Washington during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran last year – which the US joined on Israel’s behalf – fortified tunnel entrances near another, and has repaired missile bases struck in the conflict.

They offer a rare glimpse of Iranian activities at some of the sites at the centre of tensions with Israel and the US.

Some 30km (20 miles) southeast of Tehran, the Parchin complex is one of Iran’s most sensitive military sites. Western intelligence has suggested Tehran carried out tests relevant to nuclear bomb detonations there more than 20 years ago. Iran has always denied seeking ⁠atomic weapons and says its nuclear programme is purely for civilian purposes.

Neither US intelligence nor the UN nuclear watchdog found any evidence last year that Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons.

Israel reportedly struck Parchin in October 2024. Satellite imagery taken before and after that attack shows extensive damage to a rectangular building at Parchin, and apparent reconstruction in images from November 6, 2024. Imagery from October 12, 2025, shows development at the site, with the skeleton of a new structure visible and two smaller structures adjacent to it.

Progress is apparent in imagery from November 14, with what appears to be a metallic roof covering the large structure. By February 16, it cannot be seen at all, hidden by what experts say is a concrete structure.

The Institute for ‌Science and International Security (ISIS), in a January 22 analysis of satellite imagery, pointed to progress in the construction of a “concrete sarcophagus” around a newly built facility at the site, which it identified as Taleghan 2.

ISIS founder David Albright wrote on X: “Stalling the negotiations has its benefits: Over the last two to three weeks, Iran has been busy burying the new Taleghan 2 facility … More soil is available and the facility ⁠may soon become a fully unrecognizable bunker, providing significant protection from aerial strikes.”

The institute also reported in late January that satellite images showed new efforts to bury two tunnel entrances at the Isfahan complex – one of the three ⁠Iranian uranium-enrichment plants bombed by the US in June during the war. By early February, ISIS said all entrances to the tunnel complex were ⁠”completely buried”.

Other images point to ongoing efforts since February 10 to “harden and defensively ⁠strengthen” two entrances to a tunnel complex under a mountain some 2km (1.2 miles) from Natanz – the site that holds Iran’s other two uranium enrichment plants.

This comes as Washington seeks to negotiate a deal with Tehran on its nuclear programme while threatening military action if talks fail.

On Tuesday, US and Iranian representatives reached an understanding on main “guiding principles” during a meeting in Geneva, but felt short of achieving any breakthrough. The meeting in the Swiss city came after a first round of talks in Oman on February 6.'

Reports suggest that Tehran would make detailed proposals in the next two weeks to close gaps. Among the many hurdles in the negotiations is the US push to widen the scope of the deal to include restrictions on Iran’s ballistic arsenal and support for its allies in the region.

That is fuelled by Israel’s demands and regional narrative, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly pressing US President Donald Trump to shift from nuclear-only parameters.

Tehran has insisted that these provisions are non-negotiable but that it is open to discuss curbs on its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.

A previous negotiating effort collapsed last year when Israel launched attacks on Iran, triggering the 12-day war that Washington joined in by bombing key Iranian nuclear sites.

As diplomacy forges a path, both parties are ramping up military pressure.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) held a series of war games on Monday and Tuesday in the Strait of Hormuz to prepare for “potential security and military threats”.

On Wednesday, Tehran announced new joint naval drills with Russia in the Sea of Oman. Rear Admiral Hassan Maqsoudlou said the exercises were aimed at preventing any unilateral action in the region, and enhancing coordination against threats to maritime security, including risks to commercial vessels and oil tankers.

The US has also escalated its military build-up in the region. Trump has ordered a second aircraft carrier to the region, with the first, the USS Abraham Lincoln and its nearly 80 aircraft, positioned about 700 kilometres (435 miles) from the Iranian coast as of Sunday, according to satellite imagery.

The Trump administration also issued new threats against Tehran with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying on Wednesday that “Iran would be very wise to make a deal” with the US. Trump escalated his rhetoric on social media.

“Should Iran decide not to make a Deal,” the US may need to use an Indian Ocean airbase in the Chagos Islands, “in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime”, he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Iran builds concrete shield at military site amid acute US tensions

Iran and the US lean into gunboat diplomacy as nuclear talks hang in balance

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran and the United States leaned into gunboat diplomacy on Thursday as nuclear talks between the nations hung in the balance, with Tehran holding drills with Russia and the Americans bringing another aircraft carrier closer to the Mideast.

The Iranian drill and the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier near the mouth of the Mediterranean Sea underscore the tensions between the nations. Iran earlier this week also launched a drill that involved live-fire in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow opening of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of the world's traded oil passes.

The movements of additional American warships and airplanes don't guarantee a U.S. strike on Iran — but it does give President Donald Trump the ability to carry out one should he choose to do so. He's so far held off on striking Iran after setting red lines over the killing of peaceful protesters and Tehran holding mass executions, while reengaging Tehran in nuclear talks earlier disrupted by the Iran-Israel war in June.

“Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social website, seeking to pressure the United Kingdom over its plans to settle the future of the Chagos Islands with Mauritius.

Meanwhile, Iran struggles with unrest at home following its crackdown on protests, with mourners now holding ceremonies honoring their dead 40 days after their killing by security forces. Some of the gatherings have included anti-government cries, despite threats from authorities.

Iran and the US lean into gunboat diplomacy as nuclear talks hang in balance

Cuba’s Foreign Minister to Meet With Putin Amid Energy Crisis, Kremlin Says

 Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla will meet with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, coming as the communist-ruled island nation faces severe fuel shortages and blackouts due to an oil embargo imposed by the United States.

“The meeting holds special significance given the difficult period that friendly and brotherly Cuba is currently experiencing,” Peskov told reporters at a daily briefing, without specifying what issues would be discussed during the meeting.

Cuba is grappling with its worst energy crisis in years after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on any country that sells oil to it, ramping up his pressure campaign on the communist leadership to implement political and economic reforms.

Cuba, which imports around 60% of its energy supply, previously relied on oil shipments from Venezuela. Those orders were canceled after then-President Nicolás Maduro was captured in a U.S. military raid.

Russia’s Embassy in Havana said last week that Moscow planned to send oil and other petroleum products to Cuba as humanitarian aid.

Asked on Wednesday whether that move could harm Ukraine peace negotiations brokered by the United States, Peskov said he does not “believe these issues are interrelated.”

“Russia has consistently opposed the blockade of the island,” he told reporters. “We value our relationship with Cuba, and we intend to develop it further, certainly by providing the appropriate assistance to our friends during these difficult times.”

Cuba has been allied with Russia since its 1960s socialist revolution, relying on the Soviet Union for economic and political support for decades. The Kremlin has maintained close relations with the Caribbean island after the U.S.S.R. collapsed.

Cuba’s Foreign Minister to Meet With Putin Amid Energy Crisis, Kremlin Says - The Moscow Times

China is building submarines faster than ever, think tank says. Why that’s a problem for Washington

 China has ramped up its production of nuclear-powered submarines over the past five years to the point where it is launching subs faster than the United States, threatening to negate a sea-power advantage that has long belonged to Washington, a new think tank report says.

The buildup in the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s nuclear-powered sub force includes both ballistic-missile and attack subs, the report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says.

During the years 2021 to 2025, China’s submarine building surpassed that of the US in both numbers of subs launched – 10 to 7 – and tonnage – 79,000 to 55,500, says the report, which looked at shipyard satellite imagery to draw estimates of China’s construction.

Beijing does not disclose fleet numbers.

It’s a stark turnaround from the 2016 to 2020 period, when China only added three subs (23,000 tons) to the US Navy’s seven (55,500 tons), according to the IISS analysis.

The numbers represent subs launched but not necessarily completed and added to the active-duty fleet, where the US still maintains a large advantage.

As of early 2025, China had 12 active nuclear-powered submarines, six ballistic-missile boats and six guided-missile or attack boats, according to the IISS’ “Military Balance 2025.” The US had 65 total subs, with 14 of those being ballistic-missile boats.

China also maintains a large conventionally powered sub fleet, with 46 boats, according to the “Military Balance.”

The US has zero conventionally powered subs which – unlike nuclear-powered subs – need to refuel regularly.

To accommodate its nuclear-powered sub fleet growth, Beijing has significantly expanded the Huludao yard of Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co. in northern China, according to the report, headlined “Boomtime at Bohai.”

It comes after a Congressional Research Service report to Congress last month said the US Navy is falling well behind its submarine-building goal of two Virginia-class attack boats per year, with US shipyards delivering only 1.1 to 1.2 subs a year since 2022.

The US is also building new Columbia-class ballistic-missile submarines, but that program is at least a year behind schedule, with first-in-the-class USS District of Columbia not expected to be delivered to the Navy until 2028, the admiral in charge of the program told Breaking Defense last week.

“The greater numbers in the water present a growing challenge to (the US and other Western) countries as they struggle to increase their own output,” the IISS report says.

The IISS report highlights two Type 094 ballistic-missile subs (SSBNs) that have been launched at the Huludao shipyard. With the ability to fire nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, the Type 094s add to Beijing’s growing nuclear triad of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers, it says.

China is building submarines faster than ever, think tank says. Why that’s a problem for Washington | CNN

UK, German defense officials defend military buildup under Russian threats

 

'History teaches us that deterrence fails when adversaries sense disunity and weakness,' they asserted

The British and German Defense chiefs contend that military buildup is necessary to protect Europe from potential Russian aggression.

They pointed to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

"Moscow’s military buildup, combined with its willingness to wage war on our continent, as painfully evidenced in Ukraine, represents an increased risk that demands our collective attention," they declared in an opinion piece published by The Guardian.

United Kingdom Chief of Defense Staff Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton and German Chief of Defense Carsten Breuer made an argument for peace through strength.

"History teaches us that deterrence fails when adversaries sense disunity and weakness. If Russia perceives Europe in this way, it may be emboldened to extend its aggression beyond Ukraine. Indeed, we know that Moscow’s intentions range wider than the current conflict," they wrote.

They asserted that the continent must have a strong defense industry.

"Ukraine shows us that industrial bases are key to sustaining and ultimately winning any major war. The increased defence spending under way across our countries proves that we are taking this seriously, as we cannot deter if we cannot produce. Our industries must be capable of sustained output – manufacturing the ammunition, systems and platforms our forces require at the pace modern conflict demands," they asserted.

"There is a moral dimension to this endeavour. Rearmament is not warmongering; it is the responsible action of nations determined to protect their people and preserve peace. Strength deters aggression. Weakness invites it," they wrote.

Defense chiefs for UK and Germany make case for strenghening European military | Fox News

China pledges aid to Ukraine as US officials warn Beijing is quietly fueling Russia’s war

NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker accuses Beijing of enabling Russia while China offers Ukraine new humanitarian energy assistance

China offered new humanitarian energy assistance to Ukraine — even as a senior U.S. official said Beijing has the power to stop Russia’s invasion and has chosen not to.

"China could call Vladimir Putin and end this war tomorrow and cut off his dual-purpose technologies that they’re selling," U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said during a Friday panel on U.S. foreign policy at the Munich Security Conference, moderated by Bloomberg.

"China could stop buying Russian oil and gas," he added. "You know, this war is being completely enabled by China."

Whitaker’s remarks came as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha on the sidelines of the conference and pledged what both sides described as humanitarian energy assistance to help Ukraine cope with ongoing Russian strikes on its power infrastructure.

Sybiha said on social media that he was grateful for China’s decision to provide an additional energy aid package. Readouts from both Kyiv, Ukraine, and Beijing described the meeting as focused on peace efforts, bilateral ties and support for Ukraine’s energy system, which repeatedly has been targeted by Russian missile and drone attacks.

China has not publicly disclosed the size or scope of the aid package.

Beijing repeatedly has said it seeks a "constructive" role in ending the crisis and maintains that it is not a party to the conflict. Chinese officials have denied supplying lethal military assistance to Moscow and argue they support dialogue and a political settlement.

U.S. officials, however, increasingly frame China as Russia’s most important external enabler.

Whitaker said in Munich that China is providing "crucial support" for Russia’s aggression. Russia relies heavily on China for critical parts and components used in drones and other war equipment, Western officials say, even as Beijing publicly distances itself from direct weapons transfers.

China offers Ukraine aid while accused of enabling Russia war effort | Fox News